Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 56.09%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.87%) and 0-2 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.85%), while for a Melbourne Victory win it was 1-0 (5.98%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.

Result
Melbourne Victory	Draw	Melbourne City
21% ( 0.06)	22.91% ( 0.01)	56.09% ( -0.06)

Both teams to score 53.53% (

0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.92% (

0.04)

46.08% (

-0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.62% (

0.04)

68.38% (

-0.03)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.91% (

0.08)

36.09% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.13% (

0.08)

72.87% (

-0.07)

Melbourne City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.76% (

-0)

16.25% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.23% (

-0.01)

45.77% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Melbourne Victory 21%

Melbourne City 56.08%

Draw 22.91%

Melbourne Victory	Draw	Melbourne City
1-0 @ 5.98% ( 0) 2-1 @ 5.53% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 3.05% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 1.88% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.71% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.03% ( 0) Other @ 1.82% Total : 21%	1-1 @ 10.85% 0-0 @ 5.86% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.03% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.04% ( 0) Other @ 0.13% Total : 22.91%	0-1 @ 10.65% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 9.87% 0-2 @ 9.68% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 5.98% ( -0) 0-3 @ 5.87% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.05% ( 0) 1-4 @ 2.72% ( -0) 0-4 @ 2.67% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.38% ( 0) 1-5 @ 0.99% ( -0) 0-5 @ 0.97% ( -0) Other @ 2.27% Total : 56.08%