Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Rayyan win with a probability of 47.24%. A win for Istiqlol Dushanbe had a probability of 30.11% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al-Rayyan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.97%) and 2-0 (6.42%). The likeliest Istiqlol Dushanbe win was 1-2 (7.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Al-Rayyan would win this match.
