Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Istiqlol Dushanbe win with a probability of 44.98%. A win for Al-Rayyan had a probability of 30.57% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Istiqlol Dushanbe win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.91%) and 2-0 (7.17%). The likeliest Al-Rayyan win was 1-2 (7.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
