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AFC Champions League | Round of 16
Sep 14, 2021 at 10am UK
Mizuho Athletic Stadium

Nagoya Grampus
4 - 2
Daegu

Swierczok (12', 63', 65'), Nakatani (79')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Cesinha (4'), Silva (28')
Hwang (38'), An (87')
Coverage of the AFC Champions League Round of 16 clash between Nagoya Grampus and Daegu.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nagoya Grampus win with a probability of 50.95%. A win for Daegu had a probability of 27.45% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nagoya Grampus win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.46%) and 1-0 (6.43%). The likeliest Daegu win was 1-2 (6.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.22%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nagoya Grampus would win this match.

Result
Nagoya GrampusDrawDaegu
50.95%21.6%27.45%
Both teams to score 65.92%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.82%33.18%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
45.07%54.93%
Nagoya Grampus Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.58%13.42%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.62%40.37%
Daegu Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.14%23.85%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.96%58.04%
Score Analysis
    Nagoya Grampus 50.95%
    Daegu 27.45%
    Draw 21.6%
Nagoya GrampusDrawDaegu
2-1 @ 9.25%
2-0 @ 6.46%
1-0 @ 6.43%
3-1 @ 6.2%
3-2 @ 4.44%
3-0 @ 4.32%
4-1 @ 3.11%
4-2 @ 2.23%
4-0 @ 2.17%
5-1 @ 1.25%
4-3 @ 1.07%
Other @ 4.03%
Total : 50.95%
1-1 @ 9.22%
2-2 @ 6.63%
0-0 @ 3.2%
3-3 @ 2.12%
Other @ 0.43%
Total : 21.6%
1-2 @ 6.6%
0-1 @ 4.59%
0-2 @ 3.29%
2-3 @ 3.17%
1-3 @ 3.16%
0-3 @ 1.57%
2-4 @ 1.14%
1-4 @ 1.13%
Other @ 2.81%
Total : 27.45%

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