SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Angola | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Mauritania | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Algeria | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Congo DR | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Morocco | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Togo | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Algeria win with a probability of 61.55%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Togo had a probability of 15.65%.
The most likely scoreline for an Algeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.43%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.69%), while for a Togo win it was 0-1 (6.01%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Algeria would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Algeria | Draw | Togo |
61.55% ( -0.98) | 22.79% ( 0.43) | 15.65% ( 0.55) |
| Both teams to score 44.41% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.7% ( -0.7) | 53.3% ( 0.71) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.15% ( -0.6) | 74.85% ( 0.6) |
| Algeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.1% ( -0.58) | 16.9% ( 0.59) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.06% ( -1.05) | 46.94% ( 1.05) |
| Togo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.44% ( 0.35) | 46.56% ( -0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.84% ( 0.26) | 82.15% ( -0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Algeria | Draw | Togo |
| 1-0 @ 13.98% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 12.43% ( -0.14)2-1 @ 9.51% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 7.37% ( -0.23)3-1 @ 5.63% ( -0.12)4-0 @ 3.28% ( -0.17)4-1 @ 2.5% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 2.15% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 1.17% ( -0.09)4-2 @ 0.96% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.56% Total : 61.54% | 1-1 @ 10.69% ( 0.19) 0-0 @ 7.87% ( 0.22)2-2 @ 3.63% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.6% Total : 22.79% | 0-1 @ 6.01% ( 0.22) 1-2 @ 4.09% ( 0.11)0-2 @ 2.3% ( 0.11)1-3 @ 1.04% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 0.93% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.29% Total : 15.65% |
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