SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Angola | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Mauritania | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Algeria | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Algeria win with a probability of 71.63%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Equatorial Guinea had a probability of 9.25%.
The most likely scoreline for an Algeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.53%) and 3-0 (10.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.63%), while for a Equatorial Guinea win it was 0-1 (4.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 15.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Algeria would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Algeria | Draw | Equatorial Guinea |
71.63% ( -0.05) | 19.12% ( 0.02) | 9.25% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 36.83% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.98% ( -0) | 53.02% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.39% ( -0) | 74.61% |
| Algeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.44% ( -0.02) | 13.56% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.35% ( -0.03) | 40.65% ( 0.03) |
| Equatorial Guinea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 42.6% ( 0.06) | 57.4% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 10.74% ( 0.04) | 89.26% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Algeria | Draw | Equatorial Guinea |
| 1-0 @ 15.54% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 15.53% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 10.34% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 8.63% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.75% ( 0)4-0 @ 5.17% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.87% ( -0)5-0 @ 2.07% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.6% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.15% ( -0)Other @ 2.98% Total : 71.61% | 1-1 @ 8.63% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.78% ( 0)2-2 @ 2.39% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.32% Total : 19.12% | 0-1 @ 4.32% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 2.4% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 1.2% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.33% Total : 9.25% |
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