SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Congo DR | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Morocco | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Togo | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Togo win with a probability of 40.13%. A win for Equatorial Guinea had a probability of 30.18% and a draw had a probability of 29.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Togo win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.05%) and 1-2 (7.71%). The likeliest Equatorial Guinea win was 1-0 (11.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Equatorial Guinea | Draw | Togo |
30.18% ( 0.38) | 29.68% ( -0.09) | 40.13% ( -0.3) |
| Both teams to score 42.15% ( 0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.3% ( 0.35) | 64.7% ( -0.36) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.31% ( 0.24) | 83.68% ( -0.25) |
| Equatorial Guinea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.61% ( 0.5) | 38.38% ( -0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.86% ( 0.48) | 75.13% ( -0.48) |
| Togo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.4% ( 0) | 31.59% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32% ( 0) | 68% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Equatorial Guinea | Draw | Togo |
| 1-0 @ 11.61% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 6.41% ( 0.09)2-0 @ 5.56% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 2.05% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 1.78% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 1.18% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.61% Total : 30.18% | 1-1 @ 13.37% 0-0 @ 12.12% ( -0.16)2-2 @ 3.69% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.48% Total : 29.67% | 0-1 @ 13.97% ( -0.18) 0-2 @ 8.05% ( -0.1)1-2 @ 7.71% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 3.09% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 2.96% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.42% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.93% Total : 40.13% |
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