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Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Jun 20, 2023 at 2pm UK
Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium
NN
Burundi
3 - 2
Namibia
Bigirimana (1'), Bimenyimana (9'), Shabani (19')
FT(HT: 3-1)
Shalulile (41'), Rudath (85')
Fredericks (37'), Amutenya (66')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Indonesia 2-2 Burundi
Tuesday, March 28 at 2.30pm in International Friendlies
All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Namibia 2-1 Cameroon
Tuesday, March 28 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

We said: Burundi 1-0 Namibia

Knowing that anything less than three points here would spell the end of their AFCON aspirations, we expect Burundi to be fully up for this one, and coupled with the added advantage of playing on home turf, we fancy the hosts to secure a narrow victory at the end of the 90 minutes. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Namibia win with a probability of 81.38%. A draw had a probability of 14.1% and a win for Burundi had a probability of 4.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Namibia win was 0-2 with a probability of 18.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (15.83%) and 0-3 (14.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (6.86%), while for a Burundi win it was 1-0 (2.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Burundi would win this match.

Result
BurundiDrawNamibia
4.5% (-37.513 -37.51) 14.11% (-7.502 -7.5) 81.38% (45.012 45.01)
Both teams to score 27.91% (-42.791 -42.79)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.14% (-21.006 -21.01)49.86% (21 21)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.14% (-22.055 -22.06)71.85% (22.051 22.05)
Burundi Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
30.99% (-54.22 -54.22)69% (54.215 54.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
5.39% (-51.552 -51.55)94.61% (51.548 51.55)
Namibia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.06% (7.085 7.08)9.94% (-7.089 -7.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
67.12% (14.287 14.29)32.88% (-14.291 -14.29)
Score Analysis
    Burundi 4.5%
    Namibia 81.37%
    Draw 14.11%
BurundiDrawNamibia
1-0 @ 2.54% (-2.269 -2.27)
2-1 @ 1.09% (-7.054 -7.05)
Other @ 0.87%
Total : 4.5%
0-0 @ 6.86% (4.339 4.34)
1-1 @ 5.87% (-2.648 -2.65)
2-2 @ 1.26% (-5.95 -5.95)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 14.11%
0-2 @ 18.27% (14.324 14.32)
0-1 @ 15.83% (11.372 11.37)
0-3 @ 14.06% (11.731 11.73)
0-4 @ 8.12% (7.089 7.09)
1-2 @ 6.78% (-0.762 -0.76)
1-3 @ 5.22% (0.768 0.77)
0-5 @ 3.75% (3.385 3.39)
1-4 @ 3.01% (1.042 1.04)
0-6 @ 1.44% (1.335 1.34)
1-5 @ 1.39% (0.693 0.69)
2-3 @ 0.97% (-3.285 -3.29)
Other @ 2.52%
Total : 81.37%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Indonesia 2-2 Burundi
Tuesday, March 28 at 2.30pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Indonesia 3-1 Burundi
Saturday, March 25 at 1.30pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Ivory Coast 4-0 Burundi
Wednesday, November 16 at 4pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Burundi 0-1 Cameroon
Thursday, June 9 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Namibia 1-1 Burundi
Saturday, June 4 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Burundi 1-2 Liberia
Tuesday, March 29 at 11am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Namibia 2-1 Cameroon
Tuesday, March 28 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Cameroon 1-1 Namibia
Friday, March 24 at 8.30pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Namibia 0-1 Zambia
Sunday, July 17 at 6pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Namibia 1-0 Mozambique
Friday, July 15 at 3pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Madagascar 0-2 Namibia
Tuesday, July 12 at 1pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Namibia 1-1 Burundi
Saturday, June 4 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

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