SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ivory Coast | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sierra Leone | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Algeria | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Libya | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Rwanda | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Equatorial Guinea win with a probability of 47.12%. A win for Libya had a probability of 29.02% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Equatorial Guinea win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.65%) and 2-0 (7.32%). The likeliest Libya win was 1-2 (7.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Equatorial Guinea would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Equatorial Guinea | Draw | Libya |
47.12% ( -0.01) | 23.86% ( 0.01) | 29.02% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 58.95% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.11% ( -0.05) | 42.89% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.71% ( -0.05) | 65.29% ( 0.06) |
| Equatorial Guinea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.62% ( -0.03) | 18.38% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.48% ( -0.04) | 49.52% ( 0.05) |
| Libya Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.22% ( -0.02) | 27.78% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.64% ( -0.03) | 63.36% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Equatorial Guinea | Draw | Libya |
| 2-1 @ 9.38% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.65% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 7.32% ( 0)3-1 @ 5.3% ( -0)3-0 @ 4.14% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.39% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.24% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.75% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.44% ( -0)Other @ 3.51% Total : 47.12% | 1-1 @ 11.07% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.01% ( -0)0-0 @ 5.11% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.45% ( -0)Other @ 0.21% Total : 23.85% | 1-2 @ 7.1% ( 0) 0-1 @ 6.54% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.19% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.03% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.57% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.79% ( 0)1-4 @ 0.97% ( -0)Other @ 2.84% Total : 29.02% |
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