SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | France | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Australia | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 3 | Tunisia | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Denmark | 3 | -2 | 1 |
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Libya | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Rwanda | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tunisia win with a probability of 69.65%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Libya had a probability of 8.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tunisia win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (16.79%) and 3-0 (9.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (10.62%), while for a Libya win it was 0-1 (4.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Tunisia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Tunisia | Draw | Libya |
69.65% ( 0.04) | 21.36% ( 0) | 8.99% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 30.84% ( -0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.86% ( -0.1) | 61.14% ( 0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.9% ( -0.07) | 81.1% ( 0.07) |
| Tunisia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.11% ( -0.02) | 16.89% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.07% ( -0.04) | 46.92% ( 0.04) |
| Libya Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 37.11% ( -0.15) | 62.89% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 7.94% ( -0.07) | 92.06% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Tunisia | Draw | Libya |
| 1-0 @ 18.89% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 16.79% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 9.96% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 7.79% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 4.62% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 4.43% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.05% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.58% 3-2 @ 1.07% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.46% Total : 69.64% | 0-0 @ 10.62% ( 0.04) 1-1 @ 8.76% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 1.81% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.18% Total : 21.36% | 0-1 @ 4.93% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 2.03% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 1.14% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.89% Total : 8.99% |
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