Senegal have been impenetrable so far and have stamped their name as genuine title contenders. Equatorial Guinea, meanwhile, have proven they are no walkover, beating both Algeria and Mali en route to the last eight. While we expect another thrilling contest, we are backing the Lions of Teranga to come away with the win given the gulf in class and experience between the two sides.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Senegal win with a probability of 58.09%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Equatorial Guinea had a probability of 16.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Senegal win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.63%) and 2-1 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.38%), while for a Equatorial Guinea win it was 0-1 (7.25%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Senegal would win this match.
