Mali
0 - 0
Eq Guinea

Eq Guinea win 6-5 on penalties

Doumbia (78')

FT
(aet)

Salvador (23'), Miranda (32'), Ganet (43'), Bikoro (74')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Africa Cup of Nations clash between Mali and Equatorial Guinea, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

We say: Mali 2-1 Equatorial Guinea

Equatorial Guinea have enjoyed a stellar campaign so far, causing a few upsets and making it all the way to the knockout stages. However, the Malians boast a superior and experienced squad and we are tipping them to come away with the win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 46.37%. A win for Equatorial Guinea had a probability of 30.05% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.05%) and 2-0 (6.92%). The likeliest Equatorial Guinea win was 1-2 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%).

Result
Mali	Draw	Equatorial Guinea
46.37%	23.58%	30.05%

Both teams to score 60.62%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.02%

40.98%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.63%

63.37%

Mali Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.07%

17.93%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.25%

48.75%

Equatorial Guinea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.87%

26.13%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.8%

61.2%

Score Analysis

Mali 46.37%

Equatorial Guinea 30.05%

Draw 23.57%

Mali	Draw	Equatorial Guinea
2-1 @ 9.29% 1-0 @ 8.05% 2-0 @ 6.92% 3-1 @ 5.32% 3-0 @ 3.96% 3-2 @ 3.57% 4-1 @ 2.29% 4-0 @ 1.7% 4-2 @ 1.53% Other @ 3.74% Total : 46.37%	1-1 @ 10.8% 2-2 @ 6.23% 0-0 @ 4.69% 3-3 @ 1.6% Other @ 0.25% Total : 23.57%	1-2 @ 7.25% 0-1 @ 6.29% 0-2 @ 4.22% 1-3 @ 3.24% 2-3 @ 2.79% 0-3 @ 1.89% 1-4 @ 1.09% 2-4 @ 0.94% Other @ 2.35% Total : 30.05%