SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Gambia | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Tunisia | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Mauritania | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Libya | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Rwanda | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mauritania win with a probability of 39.38%. A win for Libya had a probability of 36.71% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mauritania win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.2%) and 2-0 (5.66%). The likeliest Libya win was 1-2 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mauritania would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Mauritania | Draw | Libya |
| 39.38% | 23.91% | 36.71% |
| Both teams to score 61.75% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.52% | 40.48% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.14% | 62.86% |
| Mauritania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.24% | 20.76% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.61% | 53.39% |
| Libya Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.93% | 22.07% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.58% | 55.42% |
| Score Analysis |
| Mauritania | Draw | Libya |
| 2-1 @ 8.56% 1-0 @ 7.2% 2-0 @ 5.66% 3-1 @ 4.48% 3-2 @ 3.39% 3-0 @ 2.97% 4-1 @ 1.76% 4-2 @ 1.33% 4-0 @ 1.17% Other @ 2.85% Total : 39.38% | 1-1 @ 10.88% 2-2 @ 6.46% 0-0 @ 4.58% 3-3 @ 1.71% Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.91% | 1-2 @ 8.22% 0-1 @ 6.92% 0-2 @ 5.23% 1-3 @ 4.14% 2-3 @ 3.26% 0-3 @ 2.63% 1-4 @ 1.56% 2-4 @ 1.23% 0-4 @ 1% Other @ 2.52% Total : 36.71% |
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