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Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Jun 14, 2023 at 5pm UK
Estadio Nacional 24 de Setembro
GN
Sao Tome
0 - 1
Guinea-Bissau

Pires da Mata (51')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Gano (55')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Sao Tome 0-2 Sierra Leone
Sunday, March 26 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Guinea-Bissau 0-1 Nigeria
Monday, March 27 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

We said: Sao Tome & Principe 0-2 Guinea-Bissau

Neither team is in particularly good form heading into this one, but Guinea-Bissau will back themselves to triumph against a Sao Tome side who have been found wanting at both ends of the pitch in recent games. We are backing the visitors to carry the day here in a relatively comfortable manner. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea-Bissau win with a probability of 46.91%. A win for Sao Tome & Principe had a probability of 26.84% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Guinea-Bissau win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.11%) and 0-2 (8.77%). The likeliest Sao Tome & Principe win was 1-0 (8.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 12% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Guinea-Bissau in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Guinea-Bissau.

Result
Sao Tome & PrincipeDrawGuinea-Bissau
26.84% (0.661 0.66) 26.25% (-0.093 -0.09) 46.91% (-0.575 -0.58)
Both teams to score 49.67% (0.782 0.78)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.69% (0.759 0.76)54.3% (-0.76600000000001 -0.77)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.3% (0.628 0.63)75.69% (-0.634 -0.63)
Sao Tome & Principe Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.62% (0.962 0.96)35.38% (-0.968 -0.97)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.86% (0.989 0.99)72.14% (-0.99499999999999 -0.99)
Guinea-Bissau Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.86% (0.058999999999997 0.06)23.13% (-0.064 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43% (0.088999999999999 0.09)57% (-0.096000000000004 -0.1)
Score Analysis
    Sao Tome & Principe 26.84%
    Guinea-Bissau 46.91%
    Draw 26.24%
Sao Tome & PrincipeDrawGuinea-Bissau
1-0 @ 8.5% (-0.029 -0.03)
2-1 @ 6.47% (0.158 0.16)
2-0 @ 4.42% (0.1 0.1)
3-1 @ 2.24% (0.111 0.11)
3-2 @ 1.64% (0.085 0.09)
3-0 @ 1.53% (0.073 0.07)
Other @ 2.04%
Total : 26.84%
1-1 @ 12.44% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
0-0 @ 8.18% (-0.247 -0.25)
2-2 @ 4.73% (0.124 0.12)
Other @ 0.88%
Total : 26.24%
0-1 @ 11.98% (-0.33 -0.33)
1-2 @ 9.11% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-2 @ 8.77% (-0.231 -0.23)
1-3 @ 4.45% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-3 @ 4.28% (-0.104 -0.1)
2-3 @ 2.31% (0.065 0.07)
1-4 @ 1.63% (0.006 0.01)
0-4 @ 1.57% (-0.035 -0.03)
Other @ 2.82%
Total : 46.91%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Sao Tome 0-2 Sierra Leone
Sunday, March 26 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Sierra Leone 2-2 Sao Tome
Wednesday, March 22 at 4pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Sao Tome 0-10 Nigeria
Monday, June 13 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Guinea-Bissau 5-1 Sao Tome
Thursday, June 9 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Guinea-Bissau 0-1 Nigeria
Monday, March 27 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Nigeria 0-1 Guinea-Bissau
Friday, March 24 at 4pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Guinea-Bissau 0-0 Gambia
Sunday, November 20 at 12pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Guinea-Bissau 1-3 Gabon
Thursday, November 17 at 5pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Sierra Leone 2-2 Guinea-Bissau
Monday, June 13 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Guinea-Bissau 5-1 Sao Tome
Thursday, June 9 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

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