SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sudan | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea-Bissau win with a probability of 37.18%. A win for Nigeria had a probability of 35.22% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guinea-Bissau win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.98%) and 2-0 (6.74%). The likeliest Nigeria win was 0-1 (10.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Nigeria in this match.
| Result | ||
| Guinea-Bissau | Draw | Nigeria |
37.18% ( -0.28) | 27.6% ( -0.36) | 35.22% ( 0.63) |
| Both teams to score 48.99% ( 1.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.23% ( 1.37) | 56.76% ( -1.38) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.29% ( 1.09) | 77.71% ( -1.09) |
| Guinea-Bissau Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.6% ( 0.5) | 29.4% ( -0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.61% ( 0.62) | 65.39% ( -0.62) |
| Nigeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.38% ( 1.1) | 30.61% ( -1.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.15% ( 1.28) | 66.85% ( -1.29) |
| Score Analysis |
| Guinea-Bissau | Draw | Nigeria |
| 1-0 @ 11.01% ( -0.43) 2-1 @ 7.98% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 6.74% ( -0.17)3-1 @ 3.26% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 2.75% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 1.93% ( 0.1)4-1 @ 1% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.5% Total : 37.17% | 1-1 @ 13.04% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 9% ( -0.49)2-2 @ 4.73% ( 0.17)Other @ 0.83% Total : 27.6% | 0-1 @ 10.65% ( -0.24) 1-2 @ 7.72% ( 0.17)0-2 @ 6.31% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 3.05% ( 0.16)0-3 @ 2.49% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 1.86% ( 0.12)1-4 @ 0.9% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.24% Total : 35.21% |
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