SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ivory Coast | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sierra Leone | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Algeria | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sierra Leone win with a probability of 65.8%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Sao Tome & Principe had a probability of 13.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sierra Leone win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.75%) and 1-2 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.79%), while for a Sao Tome & Principe win it was 1-0 (5%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sierra Leone would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sao Tome & Principe | Draw | Sierra Leone |
13.5% ( -2.6) | 20.7% ( -2.22) | 65.8% ( 4.81) |
| Both teams to score 45.38% ( 0.4) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.89% ( 3.92) | 49.11% ( -3.92) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.81% ( 3.44) | 71.18% ( -3.44) |
| Sao Tome & Principe Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.84% ( -1.36) | 47.16% ( 1.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.39% ( -1.04) | 82.61% ( 1.04) |
| Sierra Leone Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.89% ( 2.89) | 14.1% ( -2.89) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.27% ( 5.39) | 41.73% ( -5.39) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sao Tome & Principe | Draw | Sierra Leone |
| 1-0 @ 5% ( -1.08) 2-1 @ 3.68% ( -0.53)2-0 @ 1.88% ( -0.49)3-1 @ 0.92% ( -0.17)3-2 @ 0.9% ( -0.07)Other @ 1.11% Total : 13.5% | 1-1 @ 9.79% ( -0.98) 0-0 @ 6.65% ( -1.14)2-2 @ 3.61% ( -0.12)Other @ 0.65% Total : 20.7% | 0-1 @ 13.02% ( -0.77) 0-2 @ 12.75% ( 0.53)1-2 @ 9.59% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 8.33% ( 1.11)1-3 @ 6.26% ( 0.62)0-4 @ 4.08% ( 0.88)1-4 @ 3.07% ( 0.57)2-3 @ 2.35% ( 0.15)0-5 @ 1.6% ( 0.46)1-5 @ 1.2% ( 0.32)2-4 @ 1.15% ( 0.18)Other @ 2.39% Total : 65.79% |
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