SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sudan | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Egypt | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Uganda | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Congo DR | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Zimbabwe | 3 | -5 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Congo DR win with a probability of 39.86%. A win for Sudan had a probability of 31.99% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Congo DR win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.15%) and 0-2 (7.56%). The likeliest Sudan win was 1-0 (10.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sudan | Draw | Congo DR |
31.99% ( -0.01) | 28.15% ( 0.02) | 39.86% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 46.82% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.79% ( -0.08) | 59.21% ( 0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.36% ( -0.06) | 79.63% ( 0.06) |
| Sudan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.95% ( -0.05) | 34.05% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.27% ( -0.06) | 70.73% ( 0.06) |
| Congo DR Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.98% ( -0.04) | 29.02% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.08% ( -0.06) | 64.92% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sudan | Draw | Congo DR |
| 1-0 @ 10.64% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.1% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 5.73% ( 0)3-1 @ 2.55% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.06% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.58% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.34% Total : 31.99% | 1-1 @ 13.17% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.88% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 4.39% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.71% Total : 28.15% | 0-1 @ 12.22% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 8.15% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 7.56% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.36% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 3.12% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.04% ( -0)0-4 @ 0.97% ( -0)Other @ 1.63% Total : 39.86% |
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