SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malmo win with a probability of 70.15%. A draw had a probability of 17.6% and a win for Varnamo had a probability of 12.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malmo win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.72%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.31%), while for a Varnamo win it was 0-1 (3.59%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Malmo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Malmo | Draw | Varnamo |
70.15% ( 0.16) | 17.64% ( 0.02) | 12.21% ( -0.18) |
| Both teams to score 51.79% ( -0.66) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.41% ( -0.57) | 38.59% ( 0.56) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.11% ( -0.6) | 60.89% ( 0.6) |
| Malmo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.14% ( -0.11) | 9.86% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67.3% ( -0.26) | 32.7% ( 0.26) |
| Varnamo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.45% ( -0.66) | 42.54% ( 0.65) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.1% ( -0.57) | 78.9% ( 0.56) |
| Score Analysis |
| Malmo | Draw | Varnamo |
| 2-0 @ 11.25% ( 0.19) 1-0 @ 9.72% ( 0.21)2-1 @ 9.62% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 8.69% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 7.43% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 5.04% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 4.3% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 3.18% ( -0.08)5-0 @ 2.33% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.99% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.84% ( -0.05)6-0 @ 0.9% ( -0)Other @ 3.86% Total : 70.15% | 1-1 @ 8.31% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 4.2% ( 0.11)2-2 @ 4.11% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 0.9% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.12% Total : 17.64% | 0-1 @ 3.59% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 3.55% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 1.01% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.36% Total : 12.21% |
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