SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malmo win with a probability of 66.5%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Sirius had a probability of 14.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malmo win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.78%) and 1-0 (8.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.6%), while for a Sirius win it was 1-2 (4.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Malmo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Malmo | Draw | Sirius |
66.5% ( -5.5) | 18.62% ( 2.08) | 14.87% ( 3.41) |
| Both teams to score 56.05% ( 2.65) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.15% ( -1.56) | 36.85% ( 1.56) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.97% ( -1.72) | 59.02% ( 1.71) |
| Malmo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.72% ( -1.7) | 10.28% ( 1.69) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 66.33% ( -4.01) | 33.67% ( 4) |
| Sirius Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.48% ( 4.05) | 37.52% ( -4.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.7% ( 3.76) | 74.3% ( -3.77) |
| Score Analysis |
| Malmo | Draw | Sirius |
| 2-0 @ 9.98% ( -0.77) 2-1 @ 9.78% ( 0.34)1-0 @ 8.78% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 7.57% ( -1.24)3-1 @ 7.42% ( -0.31)4-0 @ 4.31% ( -1.1)4-1 @ 4.22% ( -0.52)3-2 @ 3.64% ( 0.25)4-2 @ 2.07% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.96% ( -0.69)5-1 @ 1.92% ( -0.41)5-2 @ 0.94% ( -0.08)Other @ 3.92% Total : 66.5% | 1-1 @ 8.6% ( 0.91) 2-2 @ 4.8% ( 0.65)0-0 @ 3.86% ( 0.29)3-3 @ 1.19% ( 0.2)Other @ 0.18% Total : 18.62% | 1-2 @ 4.22% ( 0.84) 0-1 @ 3.78% ( 0.65)0-2 @ 1.85% ( 0.48)2-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.36)1-3 @ 1.38% ( 0.39)Other @ 2.08% Total : 14.87% |
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