SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sirius win with a probability of 49.32%. A win for Kalmar had a probability of 27.96% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sirius win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.62%) and 2-0 (7.03%). The likeliest Kalmar win was 1-2 (6.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sirius would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sirius | Draw | Kalmar |
49.32% ( 1.29) | 22.72% ( -0.07) | 27.96% ( -1.21) |
| Both teams to score 62.19% ( -0.67) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.73% ( -0.49) | 38.27% ( 0.49) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.45% ( -0.52) | 60.55% ( 0.53) |
| Sirius Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.2% ( 0.28) | 15.8% ( -0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.05% ( 0.51) | 44.95% ( -0.5) |
| Kalmar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.86% ( -1.04) | 26.14% ( 1.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.78% ( -1.42) | 61.22% ( 1.43) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sirius | Draw | Kalmar |
| 2-1 @ 9.43% ( 0.12) 1-0 @ 7.62% ( 0.25)2-0 @ 7.03% ( 0.29)3-1 @ 5.8% ( 0.13)3-0 @ 4.33% ( 0.22)3-2 @ 3.89% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 2.68% ( 0.08)4-0 @ 2% ( 0.12)4-2 @ 1.8% ( 0)5-1 @ 0.99% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.75% Total : 49.32% | 1-1 @ 10.22% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.33% ( -0.11)0-0 @ 4.13% ( 0.1)3-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.3% Total : 22.72% | 1-2 @ 6.86% ( -0.19) 0-1 @ 5.54% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 3.72% ( -0.14)1-3 @ 3.07% ( -0.18)2-3 @ 2.83% ( -0.14)0-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.11)1-4 @ 1.03% ( -0.09)2-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.31% Total : 27.96% |
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