Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malmo win with a probability of 58.46%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Sirius had a probability of 20.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malmo win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.58%) and 0-1 (8.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.54%), while for a Sirius win it was 2-1 (5.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Malmo would win this match.