While San Lorenzo have struggled to find their best form in the league this season, their Copa Libertadores results have shown that they are able to lift their game when needed. With the continental competition group stage now done, Los Santos can refocus on getting their league campaign back on track, and we feel they will start with a victory in this match.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 50.75%. A draw had a probability of 29.4% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 19.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.49%) and 2-1 (7.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.14%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (9.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.
0.29) 
-0.22) 
