SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 42.73%. A draw had a probability of 30% and a win for Gimnasia had a probability of 27.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.89%) and 2-1 (7.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.23%), while for a Gimnasia win it was 0-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Velez Sarsfield would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Velez Sarsfield | Draw | Gimnasia |
42.73% ( -0.2) | 29.99% ( 0.31) | 27.27% ( -0.11) |
| Both teams to score 40.14% ( -0.8) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 33.49% ( -0.95) | 66.51% ( 0.95) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.07% ( -0.65) | 84.93% ( 0.65) |
| Velez Sarsfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.99% ( -0.59) | 31.01% ( 0.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.68% ( -0.7) | 67.31% ( 0.71) |
| Gimnasia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.18% ( -0.64) | 41.82% ( 0.65) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.72% ( -0.57) | 78.28% ( 0.57) |
| Score Analysis |
| Velez Sarsfield | Draw | Gimnasia |
| 1-0 @ 15.18% ( 0.28) 2-0 @ 8.89% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 7.75% ( -0.12)3-0 @ 3.47% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 3.03% ( -0.1)3-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.08% Total : 42.73% | 1-1 @ 13.23% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 12.96% ( 0.45)2-2 @ 3.38% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.41% Total : 29.98% | 0-1 @ 11.3% ( 0.19) 1-2 @ 5.77% ( -0.1)0-2 @ 4.93% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.68% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.05)Other @ 1.18% Total : 27.27% |
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