SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 49.43%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Gimnasia had a probability of 22.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.33%) and 2-1 (8.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.6%), while for a Gimnasia win it was 0-1 (9.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Velez Sarsfield would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Velez Sarsfield | Draw | Gimnasia |
49.43% ( -0.33) | 27.69% ( 0.22) | 22.88% ( 0.12) |
| Both teams to score 42.35% ( -0.42) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.01% ( -0.6) | 61.99% ( 0.61) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.27% ( -0.44) | 81.73% ( 0.45) |
| Velez Sarsfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.67% ( -0.43) | 25.33% ( 0.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.88% ( -0.59) | 60.12% ( 0.6) |
| Gimnasia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.72% ( -0.23) | 43.28% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.48% ( -0.19) | 79.52% ( 0.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Velez Sarsfield | Draw | Gimnasia |
| 1-0 @ 15.05% ( 0.15) 2-0 @ 10.33% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 8.66% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 4.73% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 3.96% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 1.66% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 1.62% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.36% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.05% Total : 49.42% | 1-1 @ 12.6% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 10.96% ( 0.25)2-2 @ 3.63% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.5% Total : 27.68% | 0-1 @ 9.18% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 5.28% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 3.85% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.07% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.01% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.01% Total : 22.88% |
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