SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Iraq | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Japan | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Indonesia | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Vietnam | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iraq win with a probability of 60.32%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Vietnam had a probability of 19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iraq win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.16%) and 1-0 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.53%), while for a Vietnam win it was 1-2 (5.15%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Iraq would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Iraq | Draw | Vietnam |
60.32% ( -0.06) | 20.67% ( -0.03) | 19% ( 0.09) |
| Both teams to score 57.83% ( 0.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.19% ( 0.3) | 38.8% ( -0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.88% ( 0.32) | 61.11% ( -0.32) |
| Iraq Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.5% ( 0.08) | 12.49% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.52% ( 0.16) | 38.48% ( -0.16) |
| Vietnam Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.09% ( 0.27) | 33.91% ( -0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.42% ( 0.3) | 70.58% ( -0.3) |
| Score Analysis |
| Iraq | Draw | Vietnam |
| 2-1 @ 9.91% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.16% ( -0.08)1-0 @ 8.81% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 6.87% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 6.35% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 3.72% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 3.57% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 3.3% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.93% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 1.49% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.37% ( 0)Other @ 3.83% Total : 60.32% | 1-1 @ 9.53% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.36% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 4.24% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 1.34% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.21% Total : 20.67% | 1-2 @ 5.15% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 4.58% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 2.48% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.93% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 1.86% ( 0.02)Other @ 3% Total : 19% |
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