SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Indonesia win with a probability of 38.55%. A win for Iraq had a probability of 34.6% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Indonesia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.31%) and 0-2 (6.81%). The likeliest Iraq win was 1-0 (9.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Iraq would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Iraq | Draw | Indonesia |
34.6% ( 0.01) | 26.84% ( 0) | 38.55% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 51.29% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.16% ( -0.01) | 53.83% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.7% ( -0.01) | 75.3% ( 0.01) |
| Iraq Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.44% ( -0) | 29.55% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.42% ( -0) | 65.57% ( -0) |
| Indonesia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.8% ( -0.01) | 27.19% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.39% ( -0.02) | 62.6% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Iraq | Draw | Indonesia |
| 1-0 @ 9.79% ( 0) 2-1 @ 7.78% ( 0)2-0 @ 5.97% ( 0)3-1 @ 3.16% 3-0 @ 2.43% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.06% 4-1 @ 0.96% Other @ 2.45% Total : 34.6% | 1-1 @ 12.75% 0-0 @ 8.03% ( 0)2-2 @ 5.06% ( -0)Other @ 0.99% Total : 26.84% | 0-1 @ 10.46% 1-2 @ 8.31% ( -0)0-2 @ 6.81% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.61% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.96% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.2% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.17% ( -0)0-4 @ 0.96% ( -0)Other @ 2.07% Total : 38.55% |
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