The smart money may be on Qatar, given their record in these knockout fixtures, but they have been put under duress quite a bit at this tournament.
That, along with the overall quality and resilience of their opponents, is why we are giving Uzbekistan a slight edge, as they have shown plenty of consistency and poise under pressure.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uzbekistan win with a probability of 44.32%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Qatar had a probability of 27.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uzbekistan win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.76%) and 1-2 (8.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13%), while for a Qatar win it was 1-0 (9.94%).
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