SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Qatar | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | China | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Lebanon | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Tajikistan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Qatar | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | China | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Lebanon | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Tajikistan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qatar win with a probability of 40.44%. A win for Lebanon had a probability of 33.41% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qatar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.63%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Lebanon win was 0-1 (8.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Qatar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Qatar | Draw | Lebanon |
| 40.44% | 26.14% | 33.41% |
| Both teams to score 53.31% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.84% | 51.16% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.99% | 73% |
| Qatar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.07% | 24.93% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.44% | 59.56% |
| Lebanon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.01% | 28.99% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.12% | 64.88% |
| Score Analysis |
| Qatar | Draw | Lebanon |
| 1-0 @ 10.03% 2-1 @ 8.63% 2-0 @ 6.97% 3-1 @ 4% 3-0 @ 3.23% 3-2 @ 2.48% 4-1 @ 1.39% 4-0 @ 1.12% Other @ 2.59% Total : 40.43% | 1-1 @ 12.43% 0-0 @ 7.23% 2-2 @ 5.35% 3-3 @ 1.02% Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.14% | 0-1 @ 8.95% 1-2 @ 7.7% 0-2 @ 5.54% 1-3 @ 3.18% 0-3 @ 2.29% 2-3 @ 2.21% 1-4 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.57% Total : 33.41% |
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