SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Qatar | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | China | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Tajikistan | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Lebanon | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Qatar | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | China | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Tajikistan | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Lebanon | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tajikistan win with a probability of 43.77%. A draw had a probability of 28.5% and a win for Qatar had a probability of 27.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tajikistan win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.77%) and 2-1 (8.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.1%), while for a Qatar win it was 0-1 (10.3%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Qatar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Tajikistan | Draw | Qatar |
43.77% ( -1.07) | 28.48% ( 0.25) | 27.75% ( 0.82) |
| Both teams to score 44.11% ( -0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.28% ( -0.43) | 61.72% ( 0.43) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.47% ( -0.32) | 81.53% ( 0.32) |
| Tajikistan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.94% ( -0.77) | 28.06% ( 0.77) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.28% ( -0.99) | 63.72% ( 0.99) |
| Qatar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.32% ( 0.45) | 38.69% ( -0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.58% ( 0.43) | 75.43% ( -0.42) |
| Score Analysis |
| Tajikistan | Draw | Qatar |
| 1-0 @ 13.79% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 8.77% ( -0.24)2-1 @ 8.33% ( -0.12)3-0 @ 3.71% ( -0.19)3-1 @ 3.53% ( -0.13)3-2 @ 1.68% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 1.18% ( -0.09)4-1 @ 1.12% ( -0.07)Other @ 1.67% Total : 43.77% | 1-1 @ 13.1% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 10.85% ( 0.18)2-2 @ 3.95% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.57% Total : 28.48% | 0-1 @ 10.3% ( 0.29) 1-2 @ 6.22% ( 0.12)0-2 @ 4.9% ( 0.2)1-3 @ 1.97% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 1.55% ( 0.08)2-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.55% Total : 27.74% |
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