SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neman win with a probability of 61.51%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk had a probability of 16.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Neman win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.86%) and 1-2 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.56%), while for an Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win it was 1-0 (5.75%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Neman would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | Draw | Neman |
16.2% ( 0.09) | 22.29% ( 0.01) | 61.51% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 46.95% ( 0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.52% ( 0.12) | 50.48% ( -0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.59% ( 0.1) | 72.41% ( -0.1) |
| Arsenal Dzerzhinsk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.85% ( 0.19) | 44.15% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.76% ( 0.15) | 80.24% ( -0.15) |
| Neman Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.07% ( 0.01) | 15.93% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.8% ( 0.02) | 45.2% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | Draw | Neman |
| 1-0 @ 5.75% ( 0) 2-1 @ 4.32% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 2.35% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 1.18% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.08% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.52% Total : 16.2% | 1-1 @ 10.56% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.03% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 3.97% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.73% Total : 22.29% | 0-1 @ 12.91% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 11.86% ( -0.05)1-2 @ 9.7% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 7.27% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 5.94% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 3.34% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 2.73% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.43% ( 0.02)0-5 @ 1.23% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.12% ( 0.01)1-5 @ 1% ( 0)Other @ 1.99% Total : 61.5% |
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