Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neman win with a probability of 50.81%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk had a probability of 23.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Neman win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.26%), while for an Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win it was 0-1 (8.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Neman would win this match.
