Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 55.1%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Bragantino had a probability of 20.77%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.35%) and 2-1 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.46%), while for a Bragantino win it was 0-1 (6.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
0.36) 
-0.26) 
