Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 41.56%. A win for Cruzeiro had a probability of 30.04% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.22%) and 2-0 (8.1%). The likeliest Cruzeiro win was 0-1 (10.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.
-0.05) 
0.03) 
