Given that Fortaleza and Athletico Paranaense are locked on 20 points, we expect Sunday's clash to be a tense and cagey affair, with a low-scoring draw looking like the most probable result.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 62.26%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 15.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.52%) and 2-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.55%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (5.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Fortaleza in this match.
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