While Athletico have lost just once at home in the Brasileiro this year and are enjoying a fresh start under new management, it is surely unthinkable that Palmeiras could lose three straight games in the league. Indeed, the free-scoring visitors blazed their way into the Copa Libertadores knockout phase this week and could now turn the corner domestically with another win.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 36.57%. A win for Palmeiras had a probability of 34.49% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.57%) and 2-0 (6.94%). The likeliest Palmeiras win was 0-1 (11.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.
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