Sao Paulo have won four of their five home league games this season, and we think that they will make full use of home advantage when they face an Athletico Paranaense side who have lost three of their opening five away matches in the Brasileiro.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 68.38%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 11.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.06%) and 2-1 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.29%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (4.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Sao Paulo in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Sao Paulo.
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