Despite defeating Vitoria last time out, Gremio must show more to prove a return to their finest form.
Without an away win all season in seven attempts (one point from an available 21), that undesired streak should become eight against a side keen to go five matches on home turf without losing.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 49.27%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 25.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.33%) and 2-0 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.18%), while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (7.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
0.38) 
-0.02) 
