Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 41.52%. A win for Coritiba had a probability of 33.04% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.83%) and 0-2 (6.9%). The likeliest Coritiba win was 1-0 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.
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