Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 57.12%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 19.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.93%) and 2-1 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.24%), while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (6.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
0.06) 
-0.15) 
