Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Coritiba win with a probability of 39.08%. A win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 33.63% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Coritiba win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.28%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Athletico Paranaense win was 0-1 (10.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Coritiba would win this match.
0.35) 
-0.02) 
