SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 40.41%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 34% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.7%) and 0-2 (6.72%). The likeliest Gremio win was 1-0 (8.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Gremio | Draw | Flamengo |
34% ( 0.55) | 25.59% ( 0.24) | 40.41% ( -0.79) |
| Both teams to score 55.3% ( -0.68) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.34% ( -0.94) | 48.66% ( 0.95) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.22% ( -0.86) | 70.77% ( 0.86) |
| Gremio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.59% ( -0.12) | 27.4% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.12% ( -0.16) | 62.88% ( 0.16) |
| Flamengo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.17% ( -0.81) | 23.83% ( 0.81) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.99% ( -1.18) | 58% ( 1.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Gremio | Draw | Flamengo |
| 1-0 @ 8.45% ( 0.3) 2-1 @ 7.85% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 5.47% ( 0.17)3-1 @ 3.39% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.43% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 2.36% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 1.1% ( 0)Other @ 2.96% Total : 34% | 1-1 @ 12.12% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 6.53% ( 0.25)2-2 @ 5.63% ( -0.09)3-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.58% | 0-1 @ 9.37% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 8.7% ( -0.11)0-2 @ 6.72% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 4.16% ( -0.15)0-3 @ 3.21% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 2.69% ( -0.11)1-4 @ 1.49% ( -0.09)0-4 @ 1.15% ( -0.07)2-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.06)Other @ 1.97% Total : 40.41% |
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