While Gremio boast the third-best home record in Serie A - winning 10 games from 13 so far - Athletico have just three away wins to their name in this year's Brasileiro. Therefore, the hosts can get back to winning ways after their derby defeat.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 53.71%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 21.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.75%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (7.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
0.15) 
-0.18) 
