Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 40.92%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 32.39% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (7.32%). The likeliest Gremio win was 0-1 (9.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.
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0.1) 
