Despite the difference in league positions, we are expecting this to be an evenly-fought affair, one that the home side will believe that they can win. However, we have to respect Cuiaba's form across the season as a whole, leading us to predict a low-scoring draw.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Coritiba win with a probability of 42%. A win for Cuiaba had a probability of 30.42% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Coritiba win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (7.94%). The likeliest Cuiaba win was 0-1 (9.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.
-0.11) 
0.18) 
