Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 37.32%. A win for Criciuma had a probability of 35.2% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.03%) and 0-2 (6.74%). The likeliest Criciuma win was 1-0 (10.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Corinthians would win this match.
-0.12) 
0.14) 
