Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 43.04%. A win for Criciuma had a probability of 28.91% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.42%) and 0-2 (8.4%). The likeliest Criciuma win was 1-0 (10.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.
0.15) 
-0.1) 
