Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 45.76%. A win for Cruzeiro had a probability of 27.53% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.95%) and 2-0 (8.65%). The likeliest Cruzeiro win was 0-1 (8.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood.
0.16) 
-0.04) 
