Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 60.33%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Cuiaba had a probability of 16.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.76%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.8%), while for a Cuiaba win it was 0-1 (6.04%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.
0.47) 
-0.08) 
