Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 53.39%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Santos had a probability of 20.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.32%) and 2-1 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.1%), while for a Santos win it was 0-1 (8.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cruzeiro would win this match.
-0.15) 
0.09) 
