Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 43.33%. A win for Fluminense had a probability of 30.64% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.93%) and 2-0 (7.63%). The likeliest Fluminense win was 0-1 (8.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.
-0.16) 
0.19) 
